Monday, January 16, 2023

It is the 16th of January 2023. Welcome to the Christian History Almanac brought to you by 1517 at 1517.org. I’m Dan van Voorhis.

A very happy Monday to you all! I am back in the plush CHA studios on the best coast- ok, I know we did a big mailbag for the weekend show, but over the last week, I got a tweet asking a question from Jane in Lake Arrowhead-

She was listening to an old show where I talked demographics- she wrote, “You talk about the early church and its numbers, from just a few thousand to possibly tens of thousands. Was there ever a time that the Christian population was in danger of extinction, where numbers dropped very low?”

Ok- first- Lake Arrowhead- in the San Bernardino mountains- one of my favorite places- I Zillow homes there all the time. I spent my first 5 years there on Rim of World Drive across from Our Lady of the Lake Catholic Church. It is home to Rim of the World High School, where Olympic figure skater Michelle Kwan went, as did Tim White, a famous anthro-paleontologist who worked on Lucy, as did Mike Warnke, who will probably get a weekend edition show at some point- as did the owner of the Old Orcutt Yarnery and her husband- Lisa and David Long.

Ok- so world population numbers are tricky- especially the further back we go. And the number of Christians, ooh boy, this is difficult. But I had much time in airport terminals last week, so I poured through as many studies as possible. Let’s throw out some numbers to get us started.

The world population in 1 Anno Domini (AD, the year of our Lord, CE, whatever) was perhaps about 300 million. It seems that by the year 500, we either dipped a little bit or stayed static. We may have had by then as many as 20 million Christians (this is tricky because it was an official religion in the Roman Empire but stay with me)- this would make the world population of Christians about 7%. Let’s jump to 1,000, where the world population can be supposed to be approximately 400 million and the world's Christian population perhaps at about 70 million. Then you have jumped to 17.5% of the population as Christian.

In 1500 we can estimate 600 million people worldwide- 125,000,000 being Christians- so we are at about 21% of the global population.

1700 is an interesting year. The Enlightenment is kicking in- the west is shifting. Let’s estimate 800 million with now a population of Christians at 200,000,000. That’s 25%.

We get more reliable numbers the closer we get- let’s jump to 1910 because we have a nice pre-World War 1 census. The global population is almost at 2 billion- the Christian population is estimated to be about 35%. This is a high-water mark- even more than the age of Reformations, even after the Enlightenment!

In this study, Europe is carrying the load of the Christian population- maybe as many as 400 million Christians as opposed to about 85 million in the US and maybe 10 million in Africa.

So, here’s the thing. Today- using similar methods and census studies, we have a global population of Christians that is at about 32%- which is still a higher percentage than most of human history- and this after one of the more running declines in Christian belief in America and the West in general.

So we see fluctuation but generally steady growth. A center that studies this stuff at Gordon Conwell Seminary suggests that by 2050 the global population of Christians will be back up around its high of 35%- just around the time here in America. Many suppose we will be below 50% in America.

So, we don’t see much shrinking, just shifting. Shrinking in certain places but buoyed by growth in other places. Today there are more Christians in Africa than there are humans in America.

NOW- I find the distinction between the visible and invisible church helpful here. The Visible church is all those in church, while the invisible church is all those believers scattered, not all in a church but holding to the promises of Jesus. I’m convinced that these numbers, which reflect the visible church, may not reflect the invisible church. I wonder about Emeth, the Calormene in C.S. Lewis’s The Last Battle, but I’ll stop there. When I Was in Arkansas last week, I was working on a project that touches some of this stuff, so watch this space.

Thanks for the question, Jane!

The last word for today comes from the daily lectionary and the book of Acts when we find the Ethiopian Eunuch reading from the prophet Isaiah:

 The eunuch asked Philip, “Tell me, please, who is the prophet talking about, himself or someone else?” 35 Then Philip began with that very passage of Scripture and told him the good news about Jesus.

36 As they traveled along the road, they came to some water and the eunuch said, “Look, here is water. What can stand in the way of my being baptized?” [37]  38 And he gave orders to stop the chariot. Then both Philip and the eunuch went down into the water and Philip baptized him. 39 When they came up out of the water, the Spirit of the Lord suddenly took Philip away, and the eunuch did not see him again, but went on his way rejoicing

This has been the Christian History Almanac for the 16th of January 2023, brought to you by 1517 at 1517.org.

The show is produced by a man whose own family makes up some 70% of Random Lake- he is Christopher Gillespie.

The show is written and read by a man who despises QR code service at airport restaurants- I’m Dan van Voorhis.

You can catch us here every day- and remember that the rumors of grace, forgiveness, and the redemption of all things are true…. Everything is going to be ok.